“去美元化”加速美国霸权崩塌（中英双语）

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编者按：“美国世纪”将终结！朽变的实质是什么？中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版第45篇“变局”专栏中表示，一场“去美元化”的运动已经开始，“美利坚帝国”大厦的最后一道承重墙开裂了。文章观点被美国著名商业杂志《福布斯》（Forbes）转引。本文中文删减版刊于7月20日《中国银行保险报》。本期人大重阳君为您推荐中文原文、英文版。

本文删减版刊于7月20日《中国银行保险报》

　　美国抗疫的糟糕表现，导致几乎所有国际舆论都一致判定，“美国世纪”将终结，美国主导世界的时代已走到了终点。不过，在笔者看来，抗疫失败只是表面现象，支撑美利坚帝国的三大内核，即军事力量、美式价值观与美元霸权近年来相继呈现崩塌之势，才是“百年变局”美国朽变的实质。

　　在军事力量方面，21世纪初，美国先后非法地发动阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争以及武装干涉叙利亚、利比亚等西亚北非诸国，结果是不得不承认中东民主化改造计划失败、部署撤军，导致了美国军事权势正义性的崩溃。在美式价值观方面，2008年国际金融危机、2011年“占领华尔街”事件与愈演愈烈的种族矛盾、枪击事件等，则彻底撕掉了美式价值观的虚伪面具。在美元霸权方面，特朗普执政以来，屡屡以金融制裁、美元武器威胁他国，疫情期的“无限量宽”货币政策更是促使世界对美元信心的骤降。

　　环顾世界，一场“去美元化”的运动已经开始，“美利坚帝国”大厦的最后一道承重墙开裂了。

　　全球去美元化的政策包括大幅减持美债、放弃锚定美元、增加非美元货币交易大宗商品、增加非美元的货币储备、增加黄金对冲美元风险等等。

　　从美债角度看，2018年4月至2020年第一季度，全球各国央行已连续22个月减持美债，累计减持规模达8000亿美元。3月美联储开启无限量化宽松，短短一个月内就购买超过1万亿美元资产，成为美债最大“接盘侠”。7月，美联储持有美债已超4万亿美元，超过美债前十大持有者（日本、中国、英国、爱尔兰、巴西、卢森堡、中国香港、瑞士、开曼群岛和比利时）的总和。一个月期、三个月期的美国国债收益率跌至负值，美国“技术上”进入负收益率区间。十年期美国国债收益率2020年以来史无前例地破“1”，更是坚定了世界对美国走软的普遍预期。不排除未来的个别月份、少数海外投资者还会在短期内出现增持国债“购买潮”，但海外减持美债已普遍视为是一种长期趋势，而花了半个多世纪树立起全球公信力的美联储，已成为美债堤坝的最后一道防线。

　　从支付方式看，近年来，包括中国、法国、德国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其等几乎G20国家均对外宣布在主要大宗商品贸易交易、双边货币结算中减少美元的使用，甚至抛弃美元而改用其他货币。2020年5月，美元在国际支付市场所占的比例从3月份最高值44.1%大降至40.88%。市场普遍预估，尽管支付的“去美元化”进程仍长路漫漫，但各国躁动之心已不可抑制。传统以美元为贸易清算与支付、且被美国绝对控制的SWIFT系统已被世界广泛诟病，各国全力构建“去美元”支付体系，包括中国央行上线的CIPS（人民币跨境支付系统）、PVP（支付-支付）系统、俄罗斯打造的SPFS（金融信息传输系统）和2019年7月启用欧洲与伊朗的特殊贸易结算机制INSTEX（贸易往来支付工具），以及各国双边贸易中的美元依赖比重下降（如目前中俄贸易的美元支付量就下降至50%以下），美元的国际支付份额将在不久的将来降至史上罕见的40%以下是大概率事件。

　　从外汇储备看，美元在全球外汇储备中的份额已从2000年72%下降到了2020年第一季度61.99%。尽管美元的外储份额仍稳居第一，且短期内有回升，但近年来呈缓慢下降之大势却是相当明显。各国采取稳健的外汇储备多元化的决心很坚定。与此同时，各国央行积极增加黄金储备量，过去十年黄金储备均处在净买入的状态，中国的黄金储备更是翻了一番。相比之下，为对冲美元风险，美国占全球黄金储备总量从2019年6月底的23.64%下降到了2020年6月的15.5%。美元与黄金在各国外汇储备中此消彼长的迹象，折射了各国对美元信任度的大幅削弱。四年前，美国前财政部长雅各布·卢曾警示，如果美元的支配地位不断滥用，金融交易转移至现行体系之外是必然。现在，他一语成谶。可以想象，如果近日美国就香港通过《国家安全法》而真正下手制裁，还会进一步加快包括东亚在内的多数国家的“去美元化”进程。

　　除了美债、支付与外储之外，对“去美元化”进程影响的最新变量就是数字货币的问世，即在发行、技术、工具等各个层面寻求美元作为国际首要货币属性的全面替代。目前包括中国、欧盟、日本在内的主要经济体与100多个跨国大企业都已进行了长期的数字货币研究。2020年秋季，欧洲、日本、英国、加拿大、瑞士、瑞典等六国央行将预期联合发布数字货币报告，讨论简化跨境结算的办法和安全议题。这将是正式对“去美元化”的关键技术亮剑。正如原高盛首席经济学家吉·奥尼尔所说，投资者必须相信，美元不会永远是全球头号货币。数字货币可能将是最后一击。

　　综上所述，尽管21世纪以来，不少对“去美元化”进程的质疑者认为，全球“去美元化”仍处于一种萌芽阶段，且市场对美元的观念依赖与惯性仍非常强。但从天时、地利、人和等多个因素看，新冠疫情的爆发似乎起到了多因素共振的诱发效果。由此看，当下研究“去美元化”，不只是在金融政策与市场走向具有重要意义，对中国发展战略上的启示也是巨大的。

　　全球货币在加速多元化，虽然人民币崛起是必然趋势，但中国还算不上是“去美元化”的首要动力。美国欲塑造中国为假想敌，试图团结国内社会与外部传统盟友共同抑制中国，这样的企图不可能得逞。天下苦“美”已久矣，无论是各国政府外交决策，还是市场对美元的真实预期与实际选择，美国都不可能组成对华的战略包围圈，对此，中国大可坚定对美博弈中的战略定力，戒骄戒躁，聚焦国内改革与扩大开放，做好自己的事，终会到达民族复兴的彼岸。

美国著名商业杂志《福布斯》（Forbes）转引文章部分观点

以下为英文版

China confident ‘de-dollarization’ is fast underway amid tense times

By Wang Wen

本文英文版在环球时报的版面截图

A global trend toward "de-dollarization" has already begun. The last piece of "load-bearing wall" of the "US Empire State Building" has cracked, in other words.

Global policies for "de-dollarization" include sharply reducing US debt holdings, dropping US dollar's status as an anchor currency, increasing non-dollar bulk commodity trade, growing the reserve of non-dollar currencies, and ramping up gold's hedge against the dollar.

From the perspective of US debt, 22 consecutive months from April 2018 to March 2020 saw global central banks reduce their US debt holdings. In March, the US Federal Reserve pledged unlimited quantitative easing, purchasing over $1 trillion Treasuries within a month. The Federal Reserve has become the largest receiver of US Treasuries.

In March, yields on both one-month and three-month Treasury bills were negative, while the yield for the 10-year Treasury hit below 1 percent for the first time, according to media reports. This exemplifies global anticipations of a weaker US economy.

The possibility cannot be ruled out that a small number of foreign investors in the short run will increase their holdings of US Treasuries. However, in the long run, overseas investors will likely reduce their US debt holdings. The Federal Reserve, which has spent over half a century building its global credibility, has become the last ditch of US Treasuries.

In recent years, many G20 members, such as China, France, Germany, and Russia, have reduced their utilization of the US dollars in trade deals.

According to information disclosed by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), in May, the share of US dollars in the international payment market was 40.88 percent, a drop from 44.1 percent in March.

The market estimates that although there is a long way to realize "de-dollarization," other countries are becoming restless to achieve it.

The SWIFT system, which has been traditionally used for trade clearance and payments, and which is overwhelmingly controlled by the US, has been widely criticized across the world. Many countries are striving to construct de-dollarizing payment systems. For example, China launched the Cross-border Interbank Payment System in 2015. It is very likely that the share of US dollars in international payment systems will drop to below 40 percent.

The share of the US dollar in total foreign exchange reserves of all IMF member countries has fallen from 72 percent in 2000 to 61.99 percent at the end of the first quarter in 2020. Although the US dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves still ranks first worldwide, its decline in recent years is quite obvious. Countries are determined to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, many countries' central banks have increased their gold reserves, and the year 2019 marked the 10th consecutive year of annual net purchases of gold.

To offset risks brought by US dollars, the US share in global gold reserves fell from 23.64 percent at the end of June 2019 to 15.5 percent at the end of June 2020. This reflects countries' weakening of trust in the US dollar. It is conceivable that the US sanctioning against China due to the country's national security legislation for Hong Kong will further accelerate most countries' "de-dollarization" programs.

In addition to US Treasuries, payments as well as foreign reserves, digital currency is the latest factor that affects the "de-dollarization" progress. Digital currency seeks a comprehensive replacement of the US dollar as the primary international currency in terms of issuance, technology, and tools. Major economies including China, the EU, and Japan, plus many multinational corporations, have conducted long-term digital currency research.

Since the 21st century began, many doubters of "de-dollarization" have been holding that global "de-dollarization" is still in its infancy. They feel markets are mainly dependent on the US dollar. But the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have triggered a faster "de-dollarization" progress. Considering other countries' diplomatic decisions and the market's expectations for the US dollar, one can judge that the US can never form a strategic containment circle against China.

China is confident in this.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）

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